The Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank has estimated a growth of 3.8% in Thai economy by next year because of the government’s lucrative measures.
Dr.Yanyong Thaicharoen, the First Executive VP of the EIC, said that more money has been put in the final quarter of the year because of the long weekends and measures, which also include the half-half co-payment, to make a strong purchasing power of the welfare card holders. It is likely that these will boost the economic growth by 0.53%.
Having said that, the country’s economy may go through slow growth due to the resurgence of the pandemic in different countries. This may also affect the exporters. The spending of the tourists may be affected. So, the Thai economy is likely to contract 6.5% in 2020, and improve next year, 2021 by 3.8% despite the many risk factors, which is why measures to stimulate the investment are still necessary, including extension of the co-pay scheme and the We Travel Together campaign. These measures are an application that Thai government is expected to use fiscal mechanisms so as to support the economy while encouraging public spending.
The good news is that 8 million international arrivals are expected in 2021 as COVID-19 vaccines are being developed and in fact authorized in some of the countries.
Regarding the growth of the Thai economy, Dr. Charl Kengchon, the Executive Chairman of Kasikorn Research Center said that it will expand by 2.6% in 2021 and will be majorly driven by government spending, investment and consumption. Though the growth rate is not significantly high, in this uncertain situation, forecasting a growth seems a lot positive.
